Category Archives: Planetary geology

Archeomagnetic Jerks; our decaying magnetic field

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram

“Archeomagnetic Jerks”. This interesting phrase refers, not to people, but to our global magnetic field; the one that protects us from incoming solar radiation and protects all those electrical devices we’ve come to rely on, including satellites. The magnetic field is generated by earth’s solid core; it envelopes our earth. The magnetic poles (not the same as the geographic poles), move around a bit. Measurements of the field over several decades indicate that the north magnetic pole is migrating south, towards Siberia and has moved about 1000 km since it was first pin-pointed in 1831. Geological investigations of ‘fossil’ magnetic fields also demonstrates that the magnetic field has flipped hundreds of times over past millennia, where north becomes south (see an earlier post for details). Disconcerting as this sounds, we can take some comfort in the fact that these polarity reversals do not coincide with any extinctions.  Homo sapiens was around during the last reversal (780,000 years ago) and, I’m happy to report, survived intact. We will survive the next reversal, although some of the electrical accoutrements we have amassed, might not.

Earth’s magnetic field is generated by rotation, or convection of a liquid nickel-iron layer that surrounds the solid iron core; it is referred to as the liquid outer-core. The heat necessary to drive convection comes from the solid inner core; temperatures for the outer core range from about 2700C to 7700C. Movement of the liquid iron is also driven by forces generated by earth’s rotation, called coriolis forces. Convection in the outer core is not uniform, and variations in rotation, perhaps analogous to eddies, produce variations in the magnetic field.  One region of significant variation in the magnetic field is the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), a relatively narrow band where magnetic field strength is much lower than expected; this region extends from central South America to central Africa.

The SAA is thought to evolve from complex interactions in earth’s liquid outer core beneath Africa and central South America.  And although the SAA is considered by some as a possible harbinger of wholesale magnetic pole reversal, the extent of the anomaly has a more immediate impact because of the interaction between the magnetic field and the Van Allen radiation belts (these radiation belts were one of the first discoveries made by an orbiting satellite).  The radiation belts (there are usually two concentric belts) are doughnut-shaped regions in space where charged particles from the sun are trapped as they interact with the magnetic field. In doing so, they protect us from incoming solar radiation. However, the radiation ‘doughnut’ is not oriented symmetrically with earth’s axis of rotation but is slightly off-kilter. This means that one part of the radiation belt comes very close to earth – in fact about 200-300 km, and this low region is what defines the shape of the SAA.  An important consequence of the SAA is that solar radiation is significantly more intense over the extent of the anomaly; orbiting satellites that transit the region of the anomaly are fitted with protective shields to prevent failure of electrical systems.  For example, Hubble Space Telescope passes through the anomaly 15 times a day.

 

Globally, the strength of the magnetic field has decreased about 15% in the last 200 years. The current scientific dilemma with the SAA is that it seems to be expanding as the magnetic field weakens. This observation, given voice by several media outlets, has led to some predicting dire consequences during an imminent magnetic field reversal. The problem here is that scientists do not know whether this weakening is an unusual event, or one that anomalies like the SAA cycle through from time to time.  It is also not well understood whether the SAA is a relatively recent phenomenon that has been around for a few hundred years, or has persisted over much longer periods of time, perhaps waxing and waning in its extent.

In a recent study, Jay Shah and other geophysicists looked at the magnetic signatures in 46,000 to 90,000 year-old volcanic rocks from Tristan da Cunha.  These isolated volcanic islands in the South Atlantic lie within the SAA and may provide records of older magnetic anomalies. They discovered at least 4 periods of significantly reduce magnetic intensity, and concluded that the SAA could be a persistent anomaly, or at least one that recurs from time to time.  Although the results are preliminary, they suggest that decreasing field strength in the SAA may have happened before, but without wholesale field reversal (there have been no reversals in the last 90,000 years).

The idea that the SAA is a long-lived phenomenon has received an additional boost in a study of archeological materials by Vincent Hare and colleagues, who measured the preserved magnetic signatures in Iron Age mud from southern Africa.  The archeomagnetic materials used in this study were burnt, or baked mud from various Iron Age facilities such as grain storage and hut floors (perhaps baked by cooking and heating fires).  Mud baked above a certain temperature (known as the Currie Point) will retain the magnetic signatures present at the time, in much the same way as solidified volcanic rocks.  Measurements on these materials show significant changes in the magnetic field intensity, between 1225AD and 1550AD, and an earlier period around 500 to 600 AD.  Abrupt changes in field intensity like these are commonly referred to as archeomagnetic jerks.

Despite the ‘End is nigh’ approach taken by tabloids and other popular media to this scientific phenomenon, the actual science is equivocal.  It appears that the South Atlantic (magnetic field) Anomaly is long lived – at least many 10s of thousands of years, and that the magnetic field intensity of the anomaly has waxed and waned several times.  In this context, the current state of decay of the magnetic field both globally and in the SAA, may be nothing more than a repeat of other historical and prehistorical events.  However, on a more sobering note, we are overdue a complete magnetic pole reversal.  No doubt the geophysicists will keep us posted. In the meantime, if a pole reversal takes place tomorrow, you may have to get used to subtracting (or adding) 180o from your compass bearing to ensure you end up where you want to go.

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram
Facebooktwitterlinkedin

Jet Streams

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram

Resolute Bay, Canadian Arctic, winter 1990

The Polar Vortex. Sounds like scenes from the apocalyptic movie The Day After Tomorrow; a bit of a down-draft and everything freezes. The real vortex refers to a low-pressure system with a cold, west-to-east flowing (counter clockwise) air mass that hovers over the north pole (there is also a vortex over Antarctica). When stable, the cold air remains in the north, contained by the polar jet stream. When unstable, as sometimes happens in winter, the polar jet stream meanders such that cold air can penetrate much farther south.

February is deep winter in the Arctic, and yet current temperatures there are hovering around zero degrees C; almost T-shirt weather.  Warm air masses are being allowed to enter this normally frozen domain, while the cold snaps (March 2018) are wedged into southern Canada, USA and Europe. Arctic winter temperatures are abnormally high, significantly higher than past recorded temperature anomalies.  Is something happening to the Polar Vortex; is it in a state of decay? And if so, is this process part of some long-term climate change, or is it just another anomalous spike on the climate record? None of the answers proffered so far are definitive, at least from a scientific point of view (mind you, the media are having a field day). Science will go some way to resolving this problem by observing how jet streams respond over the next few decades. Continue reading

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram
Facebooktwitterlinkedin

It looks like sea level rise is accelerating; the era of satellite altimetry

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram

Strand Fiord, Axel Heiberg Island.

Sea level. It’s the most common starting point for any kind of elevation measurement, a datum, that for centuries was understood to be an invariant surface. Then some geologists came along and showed that, for eons past, sea level has risen and fallen countless times; coasts were flooded, sea floors exposed. And sea level is still changing, going up in some places, down in others, but on average it is rising; it has been doing this for the last few 1000 years.

The current globally averaged rate of sea level rise is 3.0 +/- 0.4 millimetres per year, based on satellite altimetry. Satellite measurement of sea level is now about 25 years old. Earlier measurements, some dating back to 1700, were made by tide gauges, basically glorified measuring sticks (the initial technology was just that) which over the years, have become sophisticated, automated measuring systems.  Tide gauges measure water levels on a local scale, and in order to make sense of the data in the context of global sea level, all manner of local variables need to be considered: for example, is the location open to the ocean or a sheltered harbour, storm surges, seasonal changes in currents and water mass temperatures, changes in air pressure (sea levels rise during passage of low pressure systems – this is part of the storm surge), and whether the land is rising or subsiding (i.e. local tectonics). In contrast, satellite altimetry gathers data from a much broader swath of the ocean surface. Both Jason 2 and the more recent Jason 3 satellites can cover 95% of the ice-free ocean surface in 10 days. The accuracy of the Jason 3 radar altimeter is currently an impressive 3.3 cm.

 

Sea level anomaly maps for 2016, from satellite dataRising sea levels and changing climate are inextricably linked because ocean water mass volumes increase or decrease in concert with changes in the volume of land-based ice (primarily the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets), plus changes in ocean temperature (this is the steric effect) and salinity.  Thus, if there is an acceleration in atmospheric warming or cooling, there will be a reasonably sympathetic acceleration in ocean volume change and therefore, sea level change.  This is the scenario posited by many climate-change model projections – that increased warming will produce an acceleration in sea level rise. A recent publication that analyses the 25 years of satellite altimetry data (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2018), concludes that the (global) average sea level rise is accelerating at 0.084 +/- 0.025 mm/year2, which means that the current speed of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year), will increase year upon year.

 

Sea level curves for 1993 to 2017 showing the steric and volume contributions

The possibility of accelerating sea level rise during the 20th century, based mainly on tidal gauge data, has been debated although most analyses indicated a degree of ambiguity in the data. In fact, a 1990 ICCP report (page 266) concluded there was little concrete evidence at that time for an acceleration, although re-analysis of 20th century tide gauge data, published in Nature (2015) did show a possible accelerating trend. If that analysis is correct, this is the first time such an acceleration has been demonstrated with reasonable confidence from a single data set.

As the published analysis shows, teasing accurate sea level numbers from the satellite data is not a simple task.  As is the case for any kind of remote sensing or monitoring, there are data corrections and filters.  Some of the corrections include:

  • Terrestrial water storage (rivers, lakes, and groundwater); this is necessary because of natural variability in the exchange between land-based water and the oceans,
  • Natural variability in land-based ice storage and melting, that adds to, or subtracts water from ocean masses,
  • Natural variability in heat exchange between the atmosphere and oceans (the steric contribution to sea level),
  • Multi-year cycles such as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)
  • One-off events such as volcanic eruptions that affect regional temperatures because of ash and aerosols; in this case the Pinatubo eruption influence was incorporated into the analysis.
  • And the drift in satellite orbits; this variability is much less than that of tide gauges.

The sum of these errors gives the plus (+) and minus (–) value (0.025 mm/year2) that is attached to the overall result – 0.084 mm/year2 (check the open access publication for details). So, if our current rate of sea level rise is 3mm/year, then in 10 years the rate will have increased (accelerated) to 3.84 mm/year, and after 50 years to 7.2 mm/year (almost double the 2017 rate).

Data correction may seem like a bit of a fudge, but it is a critical part of almost every measurement we take, no matter where or what it is; it is part of the process in science that makes data intelligible and coherent.  Correcting data is part and parcel of any attempt to isolate causes and effects, as well as determining the kinds of error that are inherent in all measurements. The bottom line in this example, and one that is pointed to by the authors, is that the analysis is preliminary, and that some of the corrections might change as our knowledge of climate and other global systems improves.  However, there is confidence that this kind of analysis is on the right track.

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram
Facebooktwitterlinkedin

Visualizing Mars landscapes in 3 dimensions; stunning images from HiRISE

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram

A DEM of a steereographic pair of images of a Martian glacier

For my 10th birthday my grandparents gave me a massive Collins encyclopedia – a 1960 update of the known universe. Among the collection of images were pictures of various planetary bits and pieces, the moon and Halley’s Comet, with the clarity of the Mt. Palomar Observatory telescope; images that set the imagination reeling. Technology back then was firmly attached to terra firma. Only three years earlier Sputnik had entered the history books.  Six decades later and I still have that sense of excitement, but now there’s a constant pictorial stream, with amazing clarity and detail of a comet’s surface, close encounters with Jupiter, vapour plumes erupting from Enceladus, Saturnian rings, and Mars rovers. We can observe sand grains entrained in dunes that move across the Martian surface. A barrage of images and videos, almost in real-time (not counting the 13 minutes it takes for the signal to reach us). Continue reading

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram
Facebooktwitterlinkedin

Subcutaneous oceans on distant moons; Enceladus and Europa

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram

Satellite image mosaic of Jupiter's moon Europa showing its icy surface

Our blue Earth, rising above the lunar horizon, is an abiding image of our watery state that must evoke an emotional response in any sensible person. Cloud-swirled, Van Gogh-like. Such a blue – there’s nothing like it, at least in our own solar system.  A visitor to Mars three billion years ago might have also seen a red planet daubed blue, but all those expanses of water have since vanished, replaced by seas of sand.

Earth’s oceans are unique in our corner of the universe. Except for a thin carapace of ice at the poles, they are in a liquid state, and are in direct contact with the atmosphere to the extent that feed-back processes control weather patterns and climates.  Sufficient gravitational pull plus the damping effect of our atmosphere, prevents H2O from being stripped from our planet by solar radiation (again, unlike Mars). Our oceans exist because of this finely tuned balancing act. Continue reading

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram
Facebooktwitterlinkedin

Near Earth Objects; the database designed to save humanity

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram

Destruction wrought be the 1908 Tunguska impact

The media love natural disasters, even those that don’t exist. Last week (early October, 2017), dramatic footage of a (simulated) super-volcano eruption beneath Auckland city was aired by several international media outlets, with headlines announcing the city’s calamitous destruction. But there is no super-volcano beneath Auckland. The excitement was short-lived.  While Auckland smouldered (as if that wasn’t enough), it was announced that New Zealand’s North Island could experience a subduction zone earthquake that, in its aftermath, would leave 1000s dead. An interesting backdrop to New Zealand’s recent election. Having scared the local population to death, our purveyors of science moved on to the next concern; other “what ifs…”.

Asteroid impacts are no longer de rigueur; perhaps it’s the turn of super-volcanoes’, or because NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have stated, with some confidence, that no large impacts are expected within the next 100 years. And whereas the media may find this Continue reading

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram
Facebooktwitterlinkedin

The origin of life: Panspermia, meteorites, and a bit of luck

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram

In the opening scenes of Stanley Kubrick’s 2001 Space Odyssey (1968), Neanderthal-like folk are scrounging for food, squabbling with a neighbouring tribe who are intent on competing for the meagre lickings (a reactionary condition that would not bode well for future humanity). One of them picks up a large bone.   There’s instant recognition, seemingly influenced by a black obelisk that appears mysteriously, that it can be used for something else. His neighbour lies in a crumpled heap. In what has become an enduring Sci-fi image, he triumphantly hurls his weapon into the air, whereupon Kubrick transforms it into an orbiting space station. Continue reading

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram
Facebooktwitterlinkedin

The intriguing paradox of global warming piggybacking on global cooling

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram

17th century depiction of a frozen riverFlood, fire, drought … We have, by luck and muddled management, thwarted pestilence, but it seems that changing weather patterns everywhere are leading us on a merry dance.  Our climate is giving us a bumpy ride; anyone living in the Caribbean and southeast US, or Bangladesh, will attest to this, given the havoc that hurricanes and tropical cyclones have wrought over the past few months (northern hemisphere summer, 2017).  The skinny, outer layers of our world (air and oceans) seem to be getting warmer. No doubt there are consequences?

It may seem paradoxical, but global warming is taking place against a backdrop of global cooling. Forcing of global climates is governed by internal (within our own skinny sphere) and external agents; the latter by solar output and earth’s changing orbit. There is now, good Continue reading

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram
Facebooktwitterlinkedin

Io; Zeus’s fancy and Jupiter’s moon

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram

Jupiter and Io, created from a montage of images

Zeus, the head-honcho of assorted Greek gods, heroes, nymphs, and mortals, was chiefly the God of the Sky, or Heavens. One of his minor portfolios was the upholding of Honour, but as mythology relates, he didn’t put much energy into that particular task; he was a philanderer, much to the annoyance of his own wife, Hera (I guess his energies were directed elsewhere).  One such misdirection was Io, a mortal woman, who had the misfortune to be turned into a heifer by Zeus, to hide the infidelity from Hera. Io’s memory now survives as a planetary body; one of the Galilean moons of Jupiter is named after her (to be named a moon of the Roman God Jupiter, seems like a historical slap in the face to the Greek deity). Continue reading

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram
Facebooktwitterlinkedin

Life on Mars; what are we searching for?

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram

I believe alien life is quite common in the universe, although intelligent life is less so. Some say it has yet to appear on planet Earth. Stephen Hawking

I can only imagine H.G. Wells bitter disappointment if he were to learn that Martians were little more than primitive microbes.  All that hype and scare-mongering for nothing. Because that, it seems, is all we are ever likely to find on Mars. They may be intelligent microbes, but microbes nonetheless.

Present conditions on Mars are not conducive to thriving populations of anything living – at least in any life form we are familiar with. Incident UV and other solar radiation, low atmospheric pressure, an atmosphere almost devoid of oxygen, and the presence in soils of oxidizing molecular compounds such as perchlorates and hydrogen peroxide (think bleached hair), all contribute to rather inclement living conditions. It is possible that some life forms have survived these ravages, in sheltered enclaves or buried beneath the scorched earth, but it is more likely that, if life did exist on Mars, we will find the evidence written into ancient sedimentary rocks, or perhaps as chemical signatures.  It is these attributes that current exploration programs, both landed rover expeditions and orbiting satellites, tend to focus on. Continue reading

Facebooktwitterlinkedininstagram
Facebooktwitterlinkedin