Tag Archives: earthquake prediction

An Italian job; seismic risk-assessment at risk

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L'Aquila, Italy, April 6, 2009

Life is a risky business. Not a day goes by when some aspect of our lives comes under the gaze of risk assessment, an analysis of potential adversity, the probability that some event will impact our well-being. No black and white determinism here; we have become probabilistic entities. The seemingly simple act of driving your car, is translated into an actuarial assessment that determines the cost of insurance, a government’s health budget, a funeral director’s business plan, or a vehicle manufacturer’s liability. All are predicated on the probability of some event taking place – one chance in x occurrences. No luck, or absence of luck? Luck is when you win the lottery without buying a ticket.

Predicting natural phenomena, like volcanic eruptions, tornadoes, or earthquakes, is the stuff of science. The problem with these kinds of events is that they can have global impacts. How does Continue reading

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The earth moved; GPS, earthquakes, and slow-slip

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A post about earthquake tremor swarms and slow slip events.

It is often useful to know where you are, in a spatial sense. In the old days (LOL), field geologists, the kind that make maps of rocks and earth structures would, armed with topography maps and compass, determine their location from some vantage point using line-of-sight and triangulation.  I don’t hanker for a return to these days. I’m grateful for the kind of location data instantly available on my smart phone – the little blue dot that seems to follow my course across some digital representation of the universe. But I acknowledge a kind of smugness, in the event the digital world nosedives, knowing that I can still find my way; no General Panic Stations (GPS) if the satellite-based Global Positioning System (the other GPS) fails.

GPS devices can also be attached to bits of the earth’s crust.  This is useful because the crust, whether continent, sea floor, or volcanic island, is always on the move. Continue reading

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